Betting Update; BBC Sports Personality of The Year 2008 with the bookmakers making Adlington their
Added: (Tue Dec 09 2008)
Pressbox (Press Release) -
Traditionally, Sports Personality of the Year can throw up predictable and lifeless markets in an Olympic year but 2008 looks set to be one of the closest votes in the history of the show.
Steve Redgrave (2000) & Kelly Holmes (2004) cantered to victory with their Olympic triumphs but this year sees the clash of two SPOTY heavyweights Beijing heroes and a Formula One World Champion.
The contest looks set to be between Rebecca Adlintgon, Lewis Hamilton & Chris Hoy, with the rest at 80/1 or above (including defending Champion Joe Calzaghe). Adlington & Hoy, Five Olympic Golds between them, would normally expect to be fighting it out on their own as 9 of 13 (69%) SPOTY Champions in an Olympic year have been an Olympian. But Hamilton is defending a very strong trend that the last two consecutive British F1 Champions (Nigel Mansell 92 & Damon Hill in 96) have gone on to win Sports Personality and BOTH in an Olympic Year.
Hamilton has been as short as 1.42 on the exchanges in the aftermath of his epic triumph in Brazil but there has been significant interest in Adlintgon over the run-up to the ceremony most firms are now odds-on about the Mansfield girl (from 9/4) though you can still get Evens if you shop around carefully. Quite why she has attracted so much interest is a mystery but Chris Hoy has also been trimmed into 7/2 while Hamilton is seemingly friendless and has been lengthened to a BP 9/4.
Trying to over-analyse SPOTY trends can turn this into a real nightmare the last two F1 Champs have won the award but only 3 of 12 total Championship winning drivers have actually gone on to land the gong. However, Brits won the F1 title in 8 of 12 years between 1962 & 1973 so drivers saturating the market may well account for this low overall percentage. Conversely, only 2 of the 54 winners have ever been a swimmer (and just 12 female winners) which plays against Adlington, and only one cyclist has been victorious (a negative against Hoy). But the power of the Olympics is a strong weapon to have and the BBC have certainly been singing the praises of both contestants, who have a more down to earth image than the superstar that is Lewis Hamilton which should play well with the viewers.
This is a genuinely tight tussle between the three we cant see how anyone else can come into it, with Andy Murray not winning a major and the other Olympians not as successful as Adlington & Hoy (though Calzaghe won it last year and after another unbeaten year you cant rule him out completely). The public are used to seeing British Olympic success in cycling, which will count against Hoy, but Adlinton is the most successful British swimmer since 1908 with her two gold medals and her clean-cut personality makes her a very strong force. However, Hamilton was runner-up last year despite missing out on the F1 title and he is very much a public hero after his triumph this time around. With both having very strong trends to back them up, we feel the outright market cannot be recommended for a punt it really is too close to call and the prices among the most likely winners dont appear to offer any value at all. A small stake could be invested in Joe Calzaghe to be in the top three of the three double SPOTY winners, one was a boxer (Henry Cooper) and with Ricky Hatton 3rd last year as well as Calzaghe in First. Coupled with another extraordinary year in the ring from the Welshman, this means he should give Hoy some competition for third.
A quick word on the overseas market Usain Bolt is a worthy 2/5 favourite after becoming the first person to ever set world records in the 100m, 200m & 4x100m at a single Olympics, a feat which may never be repeated. But Michael Phelps is second in at 3/1 and we think he can be taken on at that price. Yes, he won a record breaking 8 medals in Beijing but no swimmer has ever won the overseas award with Padraig Harrington & Rafael Nadal very popular figures in England, coupled with Bolts more colourful personality, we feel he should be bigger than 3/1 and can be taken on.
Recommended Bets - 1 pt - Top 3 Finish, Joe Calzaghe
Recommended Bets - 2 pts - Overseas Winner - Lay Michael Phelps
All prices correct at time of writing.
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