Betting Update; Nantes v Lyon with the bookmakers making Lyon their 4/5 favourites

Added: (Fri Dec 05 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - Betting Update; Nantes v Lyon with the bookmakers making Lyon their 4/5 favourites

We’ve had luck already this season by recommending you lay Lyon (their 2-2 home draw v Lille in October) and we’re hoping for the same sort of trick when they travel to face Nantes at Stade de la Beaujoire on Saturday night.

At first glance, the seven-times champions’ price of 4/5 for their trip appears fully justified: Claude Puel’s side, five points clear at the top, are nailed-on to win an eighth consecutive French League title, while “The Canaries”, as Nantes are nicknamed, face a battle merely to retain their Ligue 1 status just a season after returning to the top flight.

Look a little closer, however, and reasons to oppose the hosts emerge. Firstly, there’s that five-point cushion at the top, which means Lyon don’t have to bust a gut to collect all three points. Their only genuine title challengers, Bordeaux and Marseille, have developed the lovely habit (from Lyon’s point of view) of dropping points every time the champs do – which has relived the tension on the league leaders.

Secondly, Lyon’s players will have one eye on their Champions League clash against Bayern Munich the following Wednesday. You may have thought that game was a dead rubber since both Lyon and the Bavarian giants have already qualified for the knock-out phase, but Lyon are determined to clinch top spot in the group. They feel that winning the pool will give them a better chance of progressing far in the competition – and, since claiming their first-ever Champions League trophy is Lyon’s overwhelming priority this season, don’t underestimate the importance of their continental midweek clash.

Thirdly, Nantes may lie 16th, but they’re an improving side. Their position is misleading because they made an awful start to the season but since Elie Baup replaced sacked Michel Der Zakarian in September, The Canaries have picked up 1.17 points per game – which would have drawn them a lot closer to mid-table teams such as Lorient and Grenoble. Nantes produced their best performance of the season to beat Le Havre 2-0 away from home last weekend – and will look to build on that victory at their Beaujoire in front of a sell-out crowd of around 35,000. Nantes’ physical style is also the sort Lyon dislike facing – and the aerial threat posed by plus-six-footers such as Guiranne Ndaw and Ivan Klasnic has the potential to exploit Lyon’s weaknesses at the back.

More cautious punters may like to back Nantes with a +0.75-goal start at 21/25, but I think there’s enough evidence that Lyon will struggle to win, even though Nantes may lack the flair and quality to nick a shock victory. For that reason I favour the draw.


Recommended Bets - 2pts Nantes v Lyon draw at 12/5

• All prices correct at time of writing.

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