Betting Update; Premier League - To Be Relegated with the bookmakers making West Brom their 3/10 fav

Added: (Fri Dec 05 2008)

Pressbox (Press Release) - Is this the tightest relegation battle in Premiership history?

Just 8 points separate the bottom half of the table and every side bar the top four is within 10 points of the relegation zone – even Arsenal in 4th are only 11 points from the trap door!

As a result, there is no ‘Derby County’ this term – every side is alive with a chance and as a result the market is as interesting as it has ever been, with only two sides odds-on at this stage. One of these is West Brom (3/10) who look the most likely to get cut adrift at some point – even they are only 4 points from safety but the bottom club have lost 5 of their last 6 and Tony Mowbray’s side should go even shorter even they don’t beat Portsmouth at home this weekend.

Stoke have a 3 point cushion above the bottom three but they are in decent nick (8th in the form table) and might fancy their chances against Newcastle (A), Fulham (H) & Blackburn (A) in their next 3 games. As a result, the price seems a tad on the short side and given the league is so tight we believe better value can be found elsewhere.

There is sure to be interest in Sunderland at 5/2 – a 1-4 demolition by low scorers Bolton last time out, leading to Roy Keane's controversial departure, means the Black Cats are in a full blown crisis and a trip to Old Trafford certainly isn’t going to help matters. But look at their three fixtures after that: West Brom (H), Hull (A) & Blackburn (H) looks a fantastic opportunity for them to stop the rot, even without a manager. Given they stayed up comfortably last term, they should have the quality to eventually get their way out of the bottom three.

Blackburn could be in real trouble if they don’t pick up a win soon – in 19th place, 2 points from safety & without a win since September means Paul Ince is already under intense pressure to get a result from somewhere, but a visit from table-toppers Liverpool is not ideal for that purpose this Saturday. Their current price of 11/4 could start to look very enticing but games against sides around them (Wigan, Stoke & Sunderland) before Christmas means its risky to get involved with Rovers as they still have the quality in their squad to go on a run.

We think the real value at this stage lies in Bolton, who you can get as big as 9/2 now after they had traded as short as Evens earlier in the campaign. Gary Megson’s side have slipped under the relegation radar in recent weeks with 4 wins from their last 5 games but they are still only 5 points from the drop (in 9th) and their forthcoming games are as difficult as any. They face Chelsea (H), Aston Villa (A), Portsmouth (H), Liverpool (A) & Wigan (H) this month and you would not fancy them to pick up points at Anfield & Villa Park (and at home to the Blues). Don’t forget this is the same side that avoided relegation by just one point last season and Gary Megson was under genuine pressure for his job in October after a dismal start to the season. The four recent wins have come against Man City, Hull, Middlesbrough & Sunderland, with a defeat to Liverpool sandwiched in between, so the Trotters are yet to prove that they can take points off the big guns they are about to face. Though they may not eventually go down, take the price now as you can probably hedge it nicely around the New Year.

Recommended Bets - 3 pts - Bolton To Be Relegated, Around 5.1 Betfair


• All prices correct at time of writing.

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